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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2024-11-25T04:00:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-11-25T04:00Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/35305/-1
CME Note: CME first visible to the SSE in SOHO LASCO C2 starting at 2024-11-25T04:00Z. Also visible to the SSE in SOHO LASCO C3 and STEREO A COR2. This CME closely follows CME: 2024-11-25T03:12Z but is slightly slower and slightly wider and is clearly distinguishable in running difference imagery. There is not a clearly definitive source for this CME, but a possible candidate is a deflected source associated with an M1.1 flare from AR 3906 (S13E46) that peaked at 2024-11-25T01:59Z. Arrival on 2024-11-29T02:15Z is categorized by a quick increase in Bt from around 8 nT->12.5 nT, with Bz initially northward, with further enhancement possible as the signature develops. Small jump in solar wind speed from about 370 km/s->400 km/s with small bumps in density and temperature also observed. This is mainly the likely arrival of CME 2024-11-25T21:24Z, with possible additional influences from CMEs 2024-11-25T03:12Z and 2024-11-25T04:00Z.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-11-29T02:15Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-11-28T20:00Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.0 - 4.0
Prediction Method: Average of all Methods
Prediction Method Note:

This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME

Lead Time: 81.95 hour(s)
Difference: 6.25 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Auto Generated (CCMC) on 2024-11-25T16:18Z

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